WORDS: EDITED BY THE EDITORIAL TEAM IMAGES: SOURCED
Urbanisation, lack of service delivery and economic stagnation are driving people to the economic hubs of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape
Lightstone’s latest analysis of the South African property market shows that locals still prefer to settle in the Western Cape, butthatGautengremains the forerunner when itcomes to value and the rate at which property move.The data also shows that people’s income play a role in their choice of province which in turn affects the provinces’ growth.
The lowdown in figures
Nearly 60% of South Africans live in three provinces – Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and WesternCape. Just more than 16 million (27%) of South Africa’s 60.5 million people live in Gauteng, while 11.5 million (19%) live in KZN and 7.2 million people (12%) live in the Western Cape. Northern Cape is least populated with 1.3 million (2%) people, followed by the Free State at 2.9 million(5%) and North West with 4.1 million (7%), Mpumalanga with 4.7 million (8%), Limpopo with 5.9 million (10%) and Eastern Cape with 6.6 million (11%).
Following job prospects
Gauteng (31%), Western Cape (24%) and North West (20%) have grown above the national average of 17%, suggesting that people from other provinces move for various reasons including lifestyle changes as people want more security or better service delivery, but in most cases the imbalance suggests people moving to provinces where there is a greater perceived prospect of work. “The movement of job seekers to Gauteng and Western Cape is well documented – Gauteng is the country’s economic and political hub while the Western Cape has a growing reputation as the country’s best run province and is increasingly attractive to semigrants and those who can work remotely,” says Hayley Ivins-Downes, Head of Digital at Lightstone Property. Poor economic prospects have affected the rest of the provinces, as the steady flow of people to Gauteng, the Western Cape and North West shows.
Formal vs informal
The Western Cape has the highest percentage of households (61%) living in formally registered properties and the third least number of households in informal properties. Lightstone data highlights the glaring differences between the various provinces’ formal and informal households. Of South Africa’s just more than 17 million households, almost 41% live in properties registered at the Deeds Office while the remaining 59% live either with other families or in informal properties not registered at the Deeds Office. On the other hand, Limpopo has by far the lowest percentage (15%) of households living informally registered properties, which means a staggering 85% of households (the third largest provincial number at 1.3 million) live in informal accommodation. Its population is growing at only 3%, likely due to significant migration of those looking for work opportunities elsewhere. North West (28%) and Mpumalanga (31%) are next lowest in terms of formal households, while the Free State (60%) is just behind the Western Cape, and ahead of the Northern Cape at 55%.
Middle-age spread
Young people (under 18 years of age) are the largest age band in all provinces, followed by those who are between 18 and 30 years old – except in Gauteng, where the 30 to 40 year age group are the second largest. In fact, young people make up just 28% in Gauteng, the province whose population is growing fastest in percentage terms ahead of the national average of 17%. The young, and the below 30 age band in Gauteng account for 48%, while the over 60s account for only 7.5% – which means the most economically productive 30 to 60 age group accounts for 44.5% of people in the province. This is significantly different in Limpopo, where young people make up 39% of the population, and this rises to 61% if under 30s are added. Over 60s account for around 8.5%,which leaves just more than 30% in the most economically productive 30 to 60 age group – nearly 15% less than in Gauteng. According to Ivins – Downes, using Gauteng and Limpopo as proxies for the nine provinces suggests the economically stronger provinces have greater numbers in the middle ages, while the economically weaker provinces have proportionately more younger and older people – and less of those in the most productive economic years.
Top of the provinces
Gauteng and the Western Cape, the country’s economic powerhouses, dominate volumes and value in the property market, with 65% of the property stock, and 79% of the stock value (as opposed to 58% of the population). The Western Cape accounts for 18% of the volume but 29% of the value, a significantly higher differential than Gauteng, the only other province where value exceeds volume (38%value, 35% volume). KwaZulu-Natal follows with 13% in both volume and value. At the lowend, the Northern Cape accounts for 3% of volumes, and just 1% of value–but it is SA’s least populated province with 1.3 million people, yet fared only marginally behind Limpopo, which has 5.9 million people.
Luxury vs affordable
The Western Cape(16.5%) is only slightly ahead of Gauteng (11.3%) with the highest percentage of luxury properties while the Free State offers the most affordable. Luxury properties account for just 0.5% of the total in Northern Cape and 0.9% in Limpopo.In terms of affordable housing, the Eastern Cape has 54% in this category, the Free State 65%, Gauteng 32%, KwaZulu-Natal 34%, Limpopo 38%, Mpumalanga 46%, North West 53%, Northern Cape 59% and Western Cape 27%.
Definitions:
Formal households: households who live in properties registered at the Deeds Office
Informal households: households who live in rondavels, shacks, garden cottages, etc. Housing units which are not registered as a privately known entity at the Deeds Office
